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I fully believe MS will region lock TV and some apps, but not games. Maybe you're being somewhat obscure on this point, but I sincerely doubt it comes to fruition as worded.

The only way MS would be panicked would be if they hit a major setback in regard to one or more of their media-centric functions and, if so, this situation will in all likelihood improve.

Very few games, hmm. Very doubtful here.

You get a 50% because I think there is some truth in here, but not much.