I fully believe MS will region lock TV and some apps, but not games. Maybe you're being somewhat obscure on this point, but I sincerely doubt it comes to fruition as worded.
The only way MS would be panicked would be if they hit a major setback in regard to one or more of their media-centric functions and, if so, this situation will in all likelihood improve.
Very few games, hmm. Very doubtful here.
You get a 50% because I think there is some truth in here, but not much.