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Ehhhh, I really didn't like Tretton's words here:  http://allthingsd.com/20130221/seven-questions-for-sonys-jack-tretton-following-the-playstation-4-event/

 

Will the new console cost $599 to start?

I certainly hope not. I think we’re very proud of what we delivered with the PlayStation 3 in terms of technology, and that we were able to enhance the features while still reducing the price to $249. But I think our goal with this is to debut at a more consumer-friendly price. But we haven’t made any final decisions about what the price will be at launch.

I mean, you can look at that and put an optimistic spin on it being too early, he's keeping things close, etc, but ... what does history tell us?

I chose $499, as I like to go worse case scenario.  If that's not the worst case scenario though ... oh boy ...