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There are still way too many variables.

We don't know what MS will show in terms of tech or features or games (no COD or BF at the Sony conference...)

We don't know the price of either console

We don't know release dates

We don't know if Gaikai will even make a difference or if MS has something similar to unveil. Gaikai could be too laggy for most people. In addition, even the most successful peripherals only have a relatively small uptake so the number of people with a Vita and a PS4 would be tiny under the best of circumstances.

We don't know how big of a difference Sony wiping the slate clean with PSN and PS3 disc games will have.

We don't know how much Sony will charge for Gaikai/online play, etc.