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If it does require Kinect to even start, then that is a huge fail. What if the camera breaks, but the system is fine. No more games for you? Fuck that.

Also, you're thread title is misleading. It says analysts don't THINK it will block used games and/or require constant online. It's not confirmed or denied. If it does require constant online, that's not going to work out for the millions without good internet, or any internet at all. And banning used games will hurt sales, both HW and SW.