The PS4 will follow a similar sales trend to the PS3

[Jay520]

JWeinCom said:

Jay520 said:

By adequately, I mean being able to provide the same or sufficient experience as the previous product. A typical modern cell phone can adequately replace a camera for most people who take pictures. Can the same be said for tablets and gaming? No, especially not anywhere similar to that of a cell phone and a camera.

Consoles sales drop like this at the end of every generation. And sure, people will obviously spend that money on other things. But we shouldn't assume that those other things are the causing the drop in sales. If anything, it would be the other way around. The reason I'm asking for evidence that this stuff happens is you're claiming that it'll happen. Looking through history, it's highly improbable that products offering such unique experiences would cut into each other's sales much.

We are talking about the big games of 2012 and it's relation to earlier years for the PS3 & 360 only, in order to explain why they are slumping right now. So Wii games don't really matter. Looking only at the PS360 titles, you'll see that it wasn't much better in 2010 as in 2012, and earlier years were arguably worse than 2012.

Big games for the PS360 have been increasing steadily since the start of the generation and seems to have peaked in 2011. Why the sudden drop off during 2012? To cough it up as mere coincidence when the next gen is right around the corner is a huge stretch. And for the games you listed, those are only some of the games to be released in the next few years. We don't know how they compare to the number of next gen games, since...well, the next gen games of course aren't going to be announced until the next gen consoles have been announced. 

For Sony specifically, I think their absence during 2012 and the mystery of their second half of 2013 is more than enough reason to believe they are heavily prepping for next gen. Developers like Guerrilla Games, Sucker Punch, and Naughty Dog (Uncharted team) usually release a game every 2 years with the games being announced in the year before their release. But its February and we still know nothing of their plans. Either they will release some surprise games for the PS3 this year (which wouldn't make sense), or they are keeping silent because they are waiting for the announcement of the PS4.

But you are expecting the PS360 to be relevant enough to harm the PS4? That's still going to require some sort of massive change considering how hard they are dropping now. Looking at software sales, time spent playing the PS360 appears to be dropping rapidly. This could be the result of the entire industry slumping, which would harm the PS4 too, but that would be a different story. As for many people continuing to play the PS360 after the PS4's release, it doesn't seem likely.

As for the crux of your argument, the PS4 may not be compelling in its early days. This isn't something I can argue against as I have no idea what Sony is prepping nor do I know exactly what's "enough" graphics for consumers. Well just have to wait and see what the PS4 offers and how the market reacts. Though if I had to assume, I would say the PS4 would be in a better position than the PS4 at launch due to having a stronger first party team, superior marketing, launching on time with the Xbox, and it won't have to compete with a beast like the Wii (unless the Nextbox takes off). Other things like price and architecture should also lean in the PS4's favor, though Sony could always make the same mistake twice. Will all of this be enough for the PS4 to have a great start? I don't know, but at the moment, I think it looks much more attractive than the PS3 at launch.

1.Console sales drop at the end of each generation.  People get bored with the experiences that are being offered.  It's hard for the 5th Assassin's Creed to generate the same hype as the first.  This also ties into hardware.  If people didn't buy a system for the first 7 COD games they're likely not going to buy it for the 8th.  That much is true.  But, that doesn't mean that the industry will perk right up when new hardware arrives.

2. As for tablets, they make the consoles a harder sell, and let's not forget cell phones.  People have budgets, and I think that if a person is spending 400 dollars a year on the newest iPad and 200 every other year on a new phone, that's going to limit their discretionary tech money.  It's not a 1:1 kind of thing but it's definitely a factor.   Not the main factor or even close, but it has an impact.

3. The idea that 2011 was slow beause of next gen doesn't seem to jive with the fact that a lot of big games are coming out in 2012.  Why would they intentionally hold on in 2011 and then go all in in 2012?  Based on only confirmed titles for the X-Box 360 and PS3, we're already seeing a stronger lineup than 2011.  As for Sony, again it doesn't make sense that they're having an intentionally weak 2011 just to release a bunch of major games in 2012.  If they were pulling a Nintendo and cutting off support, you wouldn't expect two huge titles in 2012.  I think that the best explanation to this is that either a) Last of Us or God of War was intented as a holiday or delayed.  Or b) Sony grossly overestimated the appeal of LBP Karting, PSASBR, Wonderbook, and Sports Champions 2.  This may seem like a big mistake for a company like this, but these are the guys who actually thought the Move would work...

4. Obviously though, Sony will have something for the PS4.  The bigger question is what will third parties have for the PS4?  Sony putting their full muscle behind the system's launch won't be enough without third parties pulling their weight as well, especially cause Sony's franchises aren't the most powerul out there.  I don't see strong third party support at first.  What motivation does a third party have to leave behind a 140 mil install base for a 0 install base?

The PS4 at launch will only look as enticing as its software lineup or features set, and I don't see that being exceptional.  The bottom line is that I don't think Sony will be able to convince gamers that they need a new console.  I don't see what system selling feature or software they'll have.

1. I never said the industry will perk back up, so it looks like you agree with me.

2. Well I can't argue against something that's just a hunch.

3. Looks like you've got your years mixed up. Anyway, Sony releasing 2 games on the PS3 doesn't do anything to counter my point that they still have plenty of other developers we haven't heard from; either they're releasing PS3 games in late 2013 or 2014 (which wouldn't make sense), or they're prepping for PS4 games. GoW:A, TLoU, and Beyond have been in development since 2010, so its likely that they were already too deep in development to release for next gen.

As for third parties, I don't see how they seem more active in 2013 than 2012. The only big games I know of are GTAV and Bioshock infinite (which isn't really that big). Both of which had their predecessors release in 2008-2010, so it's likely that they were too far in development to release next gen.

4. Why do you keep saying third parties will leave behind a 140m installbase? Firstly, it's not like that's an active 140m with high software sales. And secondly, third parties don't have to abandon the PS360 at all. It can be like last gen, with developers making games for the PS360 and the Nextgen consoles, while increasing the technical capability of the next gen games. It's highly unlikely that 3rd parties will just ignore the next gen and latch on to a dying gen. We should expect plenty of software from 3rd parties next gen.

You could say because 3rd parties won't make Nextgen exclusives then consumers won't feel moved to buy Nextgen consoles, but I see nothing to suggest such will happen. The same strategy occured last gen with PS2/PS3/360 ports. The graphical boost likely won't be as powerful but there are other important improvements like RAM. Plus we have no idea on the features of the next gen consoles, which only Nextgen games could utilize. That and the fact that people just aren't going to be buying much games for the PS360. The trends are already showing it and will next gen hits software sales are going to be even lower.