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| Jay520 said:
Consoles sales drop like this at the end of every generation. And sure, people will obviously spend that money on other things. But we shouldn't assume that those other things are the causing the drop in sales. If anything, it would be the other way around. The reason I'm asking for evidence that this stuff happens is you're claiming that it'll happen. Looking through history, it's highly improbable that products offering such unique experiences would cut into each other's sales much. We are talking about the big games of 2012 and it's relation to earlier years for the PS3 & 360 only, in order to explain why they are slumping right now. So Wii games don't really matter. Looking only at the PS360 titles, you'll see that it wasn't much better in 2010 as in 2012, and earlier years were arguably worse than 2012. Big games for the PS360 have been increasing steadily since the start of the generation and seems to have peaked in 2011. Why the sudden drop off during 2012? To cough it up as mere coincidence when the next gen is right around the corner is a huge stretch. And for the games you listed, those are only some of the games to be released in the next few years. We don't know how they compare to the number of next gen games, since...well, the next gen games of course aren't going to be announced until the next gen consoles have been announced. For Sony specifically, I think their absence during 2012 and the mystery of their second half of 2013 is more than enough reason to believe they are heavily prepping for next gen. Developers like Guerrilla Games, Sucker Punch, and Naughty Dog (Uncharted team) usually release a game every 2 years with the games being announced in the year before their release. But its February and we still know nothing of their plans. Either they will release some surprise games for the PS3 this year (which wouldn't make sense), or they are keeping silent because they are waiting for the announcement of the PS4. But you are expecting the PS360 to be relevant enough to harm the PS4? That's still going to require some sort of massive change considering how hard they are dropping now. Looking at software sales, time spent playing the PS360 appears to be dropping rapidly. This could be the result of the entire industry slumping, which would harm the PS4 too, but that would be a different story. As for many people continuing to play the PS360 after the PS4's release, it doesn't seem likely. As for the crux of your argument, the PS4 may not be compelling in its early days. This isn't something I can argue against as I have no idea what Sony is prepping nor do I know exactly what's "enough" graphics for consumers. Well just have to wait and see what the PS4 offers and how the market reacts. Though if I had to assume, I would say the PS4 would be in a better position than the PS4 at launch due to having a stronger first party team, superior marketing, launching on time with the Xbox, and it won't have to compete with a beast like the Wii (unless the Nextbox takes off). Other things like price and architecture should also lean in the PS4's favor, though Sony could always make the same mistake twice. Will all of this be enough for the PS4 to have a great start? I don't know, but at the moment, I think it looks much more attractive than the PS3 at launch. |
Console sales drop at the end of each generation. People get bored with the experiences that are being offered. It's hard for the 5th Assassin's Creed to generate the same hype as the first. This also ties into hardware. If people didn't buy a system for the first 7 COD games they're likely not going to buy it for the 8th. That much is true. But, that doesn't mean that the industry will perk right up when new hardware arrives.
As for tablets, they make the consoles a harder sell, and let's not forget cell phones. People have budgets, and I think that if a person is spending 400 dollars a year on the newest iPad and 200 every other year on a new phone, that's going to limit their discretionary tech money. It's not a 1:1 kind of thing but it's definitely a factor. Not the main factor or even close, but it has an impact.
The idea that 2011 was slow beause of next gen doesn't seem to jive with the fact that a lot of big games are coming out in 2012. Why would they intentionally hold on in 2011 and then go all in in 2012? Based on only confirmed titles for the X-Box 360 and PS3, we're already seeing a stronger lineup than 2011. As for Sony, again it doesn't make sense that they're having an intentionally weak 2011 just to release a bunch of major games in 2012. If they were pulling a Nintendo and cutting off support, you wouldn't expect two huge titles in 2012. I think that the best explanation to this is that either a) Last of Us or God of War was intented as a holiday or delayed. Or b) Sony grossly overestimated the appeal of LBP Karting, PSASBR, Wonderbook, and Sports Champions 2. This may seem like a big mistake for a company like this, but these are the guys who actually thought the Move would work...
Obviously though, Sony will have something for the PS4. The bigger question is what will third parties have for the PS4? Sony putting their full muscle behind the system's launch won't be enough without third parties pulling their weight as well, especially cause Sony's franchises aren't the most powerul out there. I don't see strong third party support at first. What motivation does a third party have to leave behind a 140 mil install base for a 0 install base?
The PS4 at launch will only look as enticing as its software lineup or features set, and I don't see that being exceptional. The bottom line is that I don't think Sony will be able to convince gamers that they need a new console. I don't see what system selling feature or software they'll have.
