| JWeinCom said:
What exactly do you mean by adequetely? Take cameras for example. Some will say that they adqeutely are replaced by cell phone cameras, although I'm sure that a hardcore photographer would differ in that opinion. You're asking for a casual relationship, which obviously can't be provided. But, the gaming industry last year is an example of other products hurting the gaming industry. The gaming industry was down massively, which you keep pointing out, with both hardware and software going downhill. This clearly means that fewer people found X-Boxs, PS3s, or Wiis under their trees. So, did people just stop buying gifts? DId they just keep their money in the bank? Probably not. They probably just spend all of that money on other products that they deemed were more worthy of those holiday dollars. And while the gaming industy has been slumping, hotcakes have been flying off the shelves like hotcakes. LOL It's obviously correlation and not causation, but I think it's a pretty reasonable guess that many people are choosing to spend money on tablets instead of gaming stuff. This does not mean that tablets are killing gaming or anything like that. This means that at the present time, tablets present a better value to consumers than game consoles. That situation could definitely change if game consoles provide something interesting and new, but until that happens, people will be spending their money on other things. 2010 saw the Kinect and Move both release (to differing levels of success), Bioshock 2, Mass Effect 2, Dead Rising 2, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Halo Reach, Kirby's Epic Yarn, Super Mario Galaxy 2, Pokemon Black and White, and Wii Party. The big thing here is the Wii titles. DKCR and Super Mario Galaxy were both heavy sellers, and so was Wii Party. Kirby's Epic Yarn wasn't that big, but I love it so I put it there. Combine the Wii's life with the Kinect and that was a bigger year. I don't feel like going back to 2009 right now. The weak year could mean that developers are prepping things for the PS4 and 720, but that doesn't seem to be the case. GTA V is coming out for PS3/360. As of now, Watchdogs is supposedly a PS3/360 title. Bioshock Infinite is going to come out for the X-Box 360 and PS3. Battlefield 4 should be a current gen thing (since the Beta will be). Even Sony and Microsoft are releasing a lot of content for the PS3 and PS4 with Gears of War, God of War, Last of Us, and Beyond. A slow year is not necessarily an indication of prep for new hardware. Sometimes the stars just align that way. In fact, I'd say the strength and amount of software coming out for the 360 and PS3 supports my point that developers are not ready to dive into the next gen. The Wii U/PS4 hypothetical you provided again assumes that the PS4 has something compelling about it to make it worth buying. If the Wii U continues to struggle, and the PS4 does well, then it is logical that the PS4 will see some of that sweet sweet Wii money, but that again assumes the PS4 doesn't suck. My main argument is not about tablets. I think that's a factor, but not the main one. The crux of my argument is that PS4 and 720 are not going to be compelling in their early days. Part of this is because I don't think the graphical leap is going to be as big as that between the PS2 and PS3 especially when we consider that there is no jump from SD to HD. Furthermore, I think developers are going to make their software multiplat with the 360 and 720, and that will further hold back the software. The online interface won't be a huge leap either, so I don't see the big selling point for the next generation of consoles. I'm NOT predicting a massive sales spike for PS3 and 360 hardware. What I'm predicting is that people are going to simply keep what they have and not feel the need to upgrade until Sony and/or Microsoft and/or Nintendo and/or maybe even Valve shows something truly revolutionary. |
By adequately, I mean being able to provide the same or sufficient experience as the previous product. A typical modern cell phone can adequately replace a camera for most people who take pictures. Can the same be said for tablets and gaming? No, especially not anywhere similar to that of a cell phone and a camera.
Consoles sales drop like this at the end of every generation. And sure, people will obviously spend that money on other things. But we shouldn't assume that those other things are the causing the drop in sales. If anything, it would be the other way around. The reason I'm asking for evidence that this stuff happens is you're claiming that it'll happen. Looking through history, it's highly improbable that products offering such unique experiences would cut into each other's sales much.
We are talking about the big games of 2012 and it's relation to earlier years for the PS3 & 360 only, in order to explain why they are slumping right now. So Wii games don't really matter. Looking only at the PS360 titles, you'll see that it wasn't much better in 2010 as in 2012, and earlier years were arguably worse than 2012.
Big games for the PS360 have been increasing steadily since the start of the generation and seems to have peaked in 2011. Why the sudden drop off during 2012? To cough it up as mere coincidence when the next gen is right around the corner is a huge stretch. And for the games you listed, those are only some of the games to be released in the next few years. We don't know how they compare to the number of next gen games, since...well, the next gen games of course aren't going to be announced until the next gen consoles have been announced.
For Sony specifically, I think their absence during 2012 and the mystery of their second half of 2013 is more than enough reason to believe they are heavily prepping for next gen. Developers like Guerrilla Games, Sucker Punch, and Naughty Dog (Uncharted team) usually release a game every 2 years with the games being announced in the year before their release. But its February and we still know nothing of their plans. Either they will release some surprise games for the PS3 this year (which wouldn't make sense), or they are keeping silent because they are waiting for the announcement of the PS4.
But you are expecting the PS360 to be relevant enough to harm the PS4? That's still going to require some sort of massive change considering how hard they are dropping now. Looking at software sales, time spent playing the PS360 appears to be dropping rapidly. This could be the result of the entire industry slumping, which would harm the PS4 too, but that would be a different story. As for many people continuing to play the PS360 after the PS4's release, it doesn't seem likely.
As for the crux of your argument, the PS4 may not be compelling in its early days. This isn't something I can argue against as I have no idea what Sony is prepping nor do I know exactly what's "enough" graphics for consumers. Well just have to wait and see what the PS4 offers and how the market reacts. Though if I had to assume, I would say the PS4 would be in a better position than the PS4 at launch due to having a stronger first party team, superior marketing, launching on time with the Xbox, and it won't have to compete with a beast like the Wii (unless the Nextbox takes off). Other things like price and architecture should also lean in the PS4's favor, though Sony could always make the same mistake twice. Will all of this be enough for the PS4 to have a great start? I don't know, but at the moment, I think it looks much more attractive than the PS3 at launch.
