Jay520 said:
There is no data that supports the argument of tablets harming console gaming. I can’t think of a single moment in history where one product harmed another product even though it didn’t adequately perform the same functions as the older product. Can you provide any examples of this? If you cannot, then your prediction can only be considered a hunch and nothing more. You said tablets would harm console gaming because people would spend money on tablets and wouldn’t have money for consoles. Your logic is based on the fact that spending money on one product would prevent the purchase of another product. Using your same logic, I can say that the lack of money spent on a Nintendo products this generation will result in more purchases for something else. Last generation, a large portion of consumers spent money on consoles, wii-motes, accessories, and of course games, lots of games. But this generation will see much fewer consumers spending money on those Nintendo products (or at least that’s what the trends suggests). This should result in more money for consumers, thus increasing PS4’s sales. My example should be more applicable since Nintendo consoles are in much more direct competition with the Ps3 and PS4 than tablets. And if this doesn't directly improve PS4 sales, it should at least negate the additional money spent on tablets, rendering their impact on the PS4 to virtually zero. It is true that 2011 was big. But you must remember 2011 was an exception and not the rule. There usually aren’t that many big games released a year. Look at years 2008-2010 for the PS3 & 360 and suddenly 2012 would look pretty good by comparison. For the sake of discussion, I’ll concede that 2012 had a very weak library. If that’s true, and 2012 experienced an uncharacteristic drop in big games, then that’s a sign that developers and publishers are anticipating a big transition into next generation and will devote a fair amount of resources into it; which does not support your point. My argument to you is not that the PS4 will not have a slow start. I’m disagreeing with your reasons explaining why it will have a slow start. You are making the argument that the PS3 & 360 are going to contribute to low sales of the PS4, which can only happen if the PS360 remain relevant. This doesn’t appear that it’s going to happen looking at the massive drops in sales and general interest. Because all trends are pointing to the PS360 reaching irrelevancy, you must be expecting some kind of revival if you expect them to remain relevant enough to harm the PS4. Again, I am NOT arguing (at least to you) that the PS4 will not have a slow start. I am arguing against your reasons for believing that they will. Your tablet reasoning is unsubstantiated because we have no data of products harming other products even though they perform vastly different functions. And your argument that the PS3 & 360 will harm the PS4 is also flawed imo because their relevancy is dwindling on zero.
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What exactly do you mean by adequetely? Take cameras for example. Some will say that they adqeutely are replaced by cell phone cameras, although I'm sure that a hardcore photographer would differ in that opinion.
You're asking for a casual relationship, which obviously can't be provided. But, the gaming industry last year is an example of other products hurting the gaming industry. The gaming industry was down massively, which you keep pointing out, with both hardware and software going downhill. This clearly means that fewer people found X-Boxs, PS3s, or Wiis under their trees. So, did people just stop buying gifts? DId they just keep their money in the bank? Probably not. They probably just spend all of that money on other products that they deemed were more worthy of those holiday dollars. And while the gaming industy has been slumping, hotcakes have been flying off the shelves like hotcakes. It's obviously correlation and not causation, but I think it's a pretty reasonable guess that many people are choosing to spend money on tablets instead of gaming stuff. This does not mean that tablets are killing gaming or anything like that. This means that at the present time, tablets present a better value to consumers than game consoles. That situation could definitely change if game consoles provide something interesting and new, but until that happens, people will be spending their money on other things.
Of course you can call it a hunch if you want, but the only way I can actually prove that one unrelated product harmed another would be if I actually interviewed each person who purchased an iPad about what went into that decision. I don't have that kind of market research available, so either you agree or don't disagree. It's one of those things that can't really be proven.
2010 saw the Kinect and Move both release (to differing levels of success), Bioshock 2, Mass Effect 2, Dead Rising 2, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Halo Reach, Kirby's Epic Yarn, Super Mario Galaxy 2, Pokemon Black and White, and Wii Party. The big thing here is the Wii titles. DKCR and Super Mario Galaxy were both heavy sellers, and so was Wii Party. Kirby's Epic Yarn wasn't that big, but I love it so I put it there. Combine the Wii's life with the Kinect and that was a bigger year. I don't feel like going back to 2009 right now. The weak year could mean that developers are prepping things for the PS4 and 720, but that doesn't seem to be the case. GTA V is coming out for PS3/360. As of now, Watchdogs is supposedly a PS3/360 title. Bioshock Infinite is going to come out for the X-Box 360 and PS3. Battlefield 4 should be a current gen thing (since the Beta will be). Even Sony and Microsoft are releasing a lot of content for the PS3 and PS4 with Gears of War, God of War, Last of Us, and Beyond. A slow year is not necessarily an indication of prep for new hardware. Sometimes the stars just align that way. In fact, I'd say the strength and amount of software coming out for the 360 and PS3 supports my point that developers are not ready to dive into the next gen.
The Wii U/PS4 hypothetical you provided again assumes that the PS4 has something compelling about it to make it worth buying. If the Wii U continues to struggle, and the PS4 does well, then it is logical that the PS4 will see some of that sweet sweet Wii money, but that again assumes the PS4 doesn't suck.
My main argument is not about tablets. I think that's a factor, but not the main one. The crux of my argument is that PS4 and 720 are not going to be compelling in their early days. Part of this is because I don't think the graphical leap is going to be as big as that between the PS2 and PS3 especially when we consider that there is no jump from SD to HD. Furthermore, I think developers are going to make their software multiplat with the 360 and 720, and that will further hold back the software. The online interface won't be a huge leap either, so I don't see the big selling point for the next generation of consoles.
I'm NOT predicting a massive sales spike for PS3 and 360 hardware. What I'm predicting is that people are going to simply keep what they have and not feel the need to upgrade until Sony and/or Microsoft and/or Nintendo and/or maybe even Valve shows something truly revolutionary.
