| JWeinCom said: No, I'm not saying that people will be satisfied with a tablet for gaming. I'm saying that the desire for a tablet will outweigh the desire for a new gaming console. Basically, Timmy has to make his birthday wish list. Does he want an X-Box 720, or an iPad mini? However you want to slice it, funds for everyone are limited and if someone spends 400 dollars on an ipad, they're less likely to spend that on a new console. For example, I bought a PS3 earlier this year (my old one died). But as I used it, I realized I needed a new phone (broke) and I could use a new computer. I returned the PS3. It's not that I thought the phone and/or computer would be better for gaming, it's just that my funds were limited. I had to make a choice. I'm not sure what you mean by countering the existence of tablets. Not trying to be an ass but I'm assuming that was a typo and I don't get what it was supposed to mean. Last year actually had quite a few more big games. Uncharted 3, Infamous 2, Saints Row 3, Skyward Sword, Skylanders (which at the time was exciting and new), Battlefield 3, Arkham City, Skyrim. Tons of stuff. Plus, the Wii was still alive with Mario and Sonic and Mario Sports Mix performing well, and the novelty of the Kinect hadn't entirely worn off yet. I don't expect the 360 and PS3 to see a revival, I'm just expecting a continual slump for the industry, aside from the Wii U if Nintendo provides software. The key is this; why will the X-Box 720 and PS4 revive the market? That's the point I seem to be losing you on. The 720 and PS4 can have great success, but only if they provide new and exciting experiences. You're approaching this from the point of a hardcore gamer who NEEDS to have the newest and shiniest toy on day one. I bought the Wii U on day one because it was new, it said Nintendo, and it played games. But most people aren't like that. Most people don't have that NEED for something new to play. Yes, gamers are bored with the games they're getting now, but that does not mean they're going to rush out and buy the next new console. Being new is not enough. Wii fans didn't rush out to buy the Wii U because it was new, nor did PSP fans rush out to buy the Vita because it was new, nor did DS fans rush out to buy the 3DS because it was new. New is not enough. So, the question is this. What are the 720 and PS4 going to do that's going to make the 360 and PS3 irrelevant? What games are those systems going to have that's going to make people say "I'm going to take this 400-500 and use it to buy a PS4 instead of just playing the next COD on my PS4"? I don't think that the PS4 and 720 are going to do anything special enough to reenergize the industry, at least not for a year or two. |
There is no data that supports the argument of tablets harming console gaming. I can’t think of a single moment in history where one product harmed another product even though it didn’t adequately perform the same functions as the older product. Can you provide any examples of this? If you cannot, then your prediction can only be considered a hunch and nothing more.
You said tablets would harm console gaming because people would spend money on tablets and wouldn’t have money for consoles. Your logic is based on the fact that spending money on one product would prevent the purchase of another product. Using your same logic, I can say that the lack of money spent on a Nintendo products this generation will result in more purchases for something else.
Last generation, a large portion of consumers spent money on consoles, wii-motes, accessories, and of course games, lots of games. But this generation will see much fewer consumers spending money on those Nintendo products (or at least that’s what the trends suggests). This should result in more money for consumers, thus increasing PS4’s sales. My example should be more applicable since Nintendo consoles are in much more direct competition with the Ps3 and PS4 than tablets. And if this doesn't directly improve PS4 sales, it should at least negate the additional money spent on tablets, rendering their impact on the PS4 to virtually zero.
It is true that 2011 was big. But you must remember 2011 was an exception and not the rule. There usually aren’t that many big games released a year. Look at years 2008-2010 for the PS3 & 360 and suddenly 2012 would look pretty good by comparison. For the sake of discussion, I’ll concede that 2012 had a very weak library. If that’s true, and 2012 experienced an uncharacteristic drop in big games, then that’s a sign that developers and publishers are anticipating a big transition into next generation and will devote a fair amount of resources into it; which does not support your point.
My argument to you is not that the PS4 will not have a slow start. I’m disagreeing with your reasons explaining why it will have a slow start. You are making the argument that the PS3 & 360 are going to contribute to low sales of the PS4, which can only happen if the PS360 remain relevant. This doesn’t appear that it’s going to happen looking at the massive drops in sales and general interest. Because all trends are pointing to the PS360 reaching irrelevancy, you must be expecting some kind of revival if you expect them to remain relevant enough to harm the PS4.
Again, I am NOT arguing (at least to you) that the PS4 will not have a slow start. I am arguing against your reasons for believing that they will. Your tablet reasoning is unsubstantiated because we have no data of products harming other products even though they perform vastly different functions. And your argument that the PS3 & 360 will harm the PS4 is also flawed imo because their relevancy is dwindling on zero.
