I agree to an extent. I think Sony will launch pretty expensive to begin with and the console will be a slow burner. But I think it has the potential to take off better than the PS3. Many of the factors Jay mentioned (first-party appearances; better marketing; a high but more reasonable price) will make it a more justifiable purchase for many people.
That said, they're not coming off the back of the phenomenon that was PS2, so who's to say how the first year will go? At least PS3 has more steam than the competition at the moment to keep it going forward, but barely.
I hope it does alright anyway. Like I've said in a few places around here lately, I think the SCE from 2009 onwards have the potential to release a successful console, much more than the SCE of 2005/2006.
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