I believe there is a strong possibility that the Playstation announcement on 20/02/2013 will actually have more to do with the PS3 and Vita than the PS4. Between them and Microsoft, Sony has the most to lose by jumping into the next generation. The PS3 is significantly outselling everyone else, and a PS4 announcement might kill off the momentum they have going. Plus with good exclusives coming out this year, why push the PS3 to last-gen status? However, if they leave it too late and Microsoft has the spotlight, they make declaring the PS4 a "me too" gesture. Sony definitely don't want to be seen as followers this time. So what do they do?
It's time to launch Gaikai!
Now bear with me, there are some good reasons to do this.
Advantages of Gaikai launch on the 20th (and how to do it):
1. Free Beta Testing
You want to launch things when they are ready, but sadly this is rarely the case. Just look at the Wii U launch. The big day one update ended up leaving a bit of a sour taste. If Sony launch the PS4 at the same time as Gaikai, there are bound to be some teething problems. They would be better served by getting a bit of it up and running well before PS4 so the first impressions are as good as possible. And to do this? Well why not put it on the PS3...
2. PS3 sales boost
Ok, I know what you are thinking. Why put a PS4 killer feature on the last-gen model? Well the trick is, you don't (not completely). What you do is you take the Gaikai service, but use it as a way to stream PS4 demos to your PS3. Now starting on the 20th, PS+ users can play maybe 1 or 2 demos (probably just tech demos) that show what the PS4 is made of. It would be like the usual presentation of teasers and tech demos, except an update later and we are all doing it for ourselves at home on the PS3! If it all goes well, expand the model to E3. Present all the new launch games, followed by everyone getting demos at home hours later. Sony would be advertising all the new IP, and getting people hooked on the PS4 before it is even out. And it would be the first place to play everything next-gen shown at E3. Microsoft can only show, but with Sony you can play. Then they keep the best part of Gaikai as next-gen exclusive, starting with...
3. Save the Vita
Launch full Gaikai on the Vita! Declare the service capable of full backwards compatibilty, with an every expanding collection of PS1/2/3 games ready to stream. With a Vita update on the 20th, everyone with PS+ has access to a huge library of games and (for the next few months until PS4) it is Vita exclusive. No more waiting for a system seller, as the Vita now has them all from every playstation console. They can also use the Vita owners to test the system, as they would begin with the current small install base and would have to deal with ever expanding numbers (hopefully, as if this doesn't save it nothing will).
By keeping the Gaikai launch separate, should anything go wrong with Gaikai the PS4 remains unscathed. Therefore on the 20th the focus should be Gaikai, and the only PS4 discussion should be teasers in the form of streaming tech demos, and the announcement they are bringing it to E3.
At E3 they can then go into a lot more detail regarding the PS4. They would be able to focus on what should set the PS4 apart, the games, and use Gaikai for the demos.
So which do you prefer? Gaikai launch with demos to introduce PS4, meaning waiting a bit longer for full PS4 disclosure? Or a traditional rundown of hardware, design, tech demos and teasers on the 20th?
PSN: Osc89
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