Clinton vs. Obama: Who's gonna win?

[NJ5]

Mmmmm....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5LJt7I95yIU&refer=home

Clinton Holds Lead Over Obama in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Poll Finds

By Karen Leigh

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among Democrats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two of the states she's counting on to halt his momentum in the party's presidential race and regain a lead in convention delegates, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

Clinton leads Obama 55 percent to 34 percent among likely Democratic voters in Ohio, according to the poll. In Pennsylvania, she has 52 percent to Obama's 36 percent.

The survey was conducted Feb. 6-12, before Obama, a senator from Illinois, swept primaries in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C., and during the period in which he defeated Clinton in five earlier contests.

Clinton, a senator from New York, is targeting Ohio, which holds its primary on March 4. Pennsylvania voters cast ballots April 22.

``Ohio is as good a demographic fit for Senator Clinton as she will find,'' Quinnipiac Polling Institute President Peter A. Brown said in a statement. ``If Clinton can't win the primary there, it is very difficult to see how she stops Obama.''

The poll found Arizona Senator John McCain, the likely Republican presidential nominee, would run a close race with either Clinton or Obama in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. All three are critical swing states in the general election.

McCain is statistically even with both Democrats in Ohio: McCain draws 44 percent support to Clinton's 43 percent, and he has 42 percent to Obama's 40 percent.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Clinton would get 46 percent to McCain's 40 percent if the election were held now, while Obama would get 42 percent to 41 percent for McCain.

McCain leads either Democratic candidate in Florida by 2 percentage points, a result within the poll's margin of error.

McCain holds an edge among self-described independent voters if his opponent is Clinton in all three states. The margin narrows if Obama is the Democratic nominee, according to the poll. For example, Florida independents favor McCain over Clinton 44 percent to 36 percent; McCain's lead with that group with Obama in the race is 40 percent to 38 percent.

Quinnipiac, based in Hamden, Connecticut, surveyed 1,748 Ohio voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points (including 564 Democrats with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points), 1,419 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points (including 577 Democrats with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points), and 1,009 Florida voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

To contact the reporter on this story: Karen Leigh in Washington at [e-mail] .

Last Updated: February 14, 2008 09:01 EST