| BenVTrigger said: This is something Ive been thinking about lately. As most of you know I wasn't thrilled with the Launch games for the Wii U but have loved the stuff they announced at Nintendo Direct recently. It looks to me like Nintendo is really ramping up their efforts and are building some great software.
But is this all a little too late? Did Nintendo miss a huge opportunity to really drive a large install base early against the next gen systems? I cant help but think Ninty shouldve had more large scale software available or announced for the early days of the system. As we know the Playstation 4 is due to be announced this month and the next Xbox very soon after that. It seems like there's a very real chance the announcement s could steal some thunder the Wii U was starting to gain. This is NOT a Wii U doom thread but do you feel Nintendo could've done a better job of building a strong opening library and user base to give the a huge jump start on Sony / ME |
Currently it seems like a lost opportunity; however, as outlined by Iwata, there will be a steady flow of games starting as of March. Things should pick up a bit by then. Nonetheless you are right, the short term outlook seems gloomy.
However, people seem to forget the launch and response of Xbox 360 during its first year on the market; it was not successful and did not show much promise with seeling less than 6 million units.
Nintendo will release their most prominent software during the holiday season in 2013 to try and negate PS4 and Xbox 720's offerings. Nintendo will most likely be the cheaper alternative and I think this is when things turn to their favour, with a bigger catalogue and bundled Mario (White Sku will be discontinued with NSMB U pre-installed for the same price).
This is how I see how the Wii U will play out this year:
As odd as it may sound, Nintendo will most likely concentrate on locking the Japanese market (Wii U), before moving forward to the Western market. Nintendo has developed strong ties with Japanese 3rd party developers thanks in large part to the success they are having with the 3DS - they will want to keep those strong ties moving forward. Nintendo will be driving the install base starting from March with a steady flow of games in Japan - Game and Wario in March, Dragon Quest X in April and so forth. Sales will start picking up, gain momentum and hopefully hit 1.5 million by October.
From November to December, Nintendo will have their big guns out to try and negate the hype surrounding Sony's PS4 in Japan.. I see Nintendo following the same release pattern as the 3DS with the release of 3D Mario, Mario Kart and a big 3rd party game for the Nov-Dec period; sales will be off the roof. Its going to get ugly for PS4. Nintendo wants the Japanese market all to themselves and I see nothing stopping them. Furthermore, if Nintendo is smart, one might see a Wii U app, a la Pokemon Dream Radar, to coincide with the release of Pokemon X and Y on 3DS.
The same cannot be said for the US and Europe market though - they will be moderately successful. Wii U sales will drop more until Raymand Legends release date hits. March will be the best month in Q4 for Nintendo as the Wii U will gain momemtum with Monster Hunter and Lego City Undercover, the latter being a surprise hit. A steady flow of games should follow from here on out. Moreover, there will be no price drop as they are already losing money per console. I see Nintendo releasing a 8GB bundle with New Super Mario Bros U pre-installed at 299.99$ or 329.99$ to replace the by-then discontinued 8GB White Sku (Nintendoland bundle at 349.99$ will stay); sales will increase as a result as consumers will see value, Mario game + affordable price.
Much like the Nov-Dec Japanese schedule, I see Nintendo following the same strategy but serving more as a re-launch with heavy marketing and promotions in the US and Europe. Judging by Nintendo's 3rd Quarter Results, Nintendo did not spend as much as one would expect on marketing this quarter - 300 million US, which includes 3DS, Wii, Wii U and DS budget.
