| RolStoppable said: Correlation doesn't equal causation. I don't get why you are so obsessed with tablets. People may play games on them, but that doesn't mean that it's hurting dedicated gaming machines. There have been studies that showed that people who traditionally played on handhelds still buy just as many handheld games as before, despite spending time on smartphone gaming as well. Of the three eight generation systems that have been launched so far, all of them possess traits that would have led to failure, regardless of the existence of tablets and smartphones. The 3DS was priced much higher than any Nintendo handheld before and banked on a feature that holds no value (3D). Not to mention that software prices were raised as well. The PSV emulated a strategy that already led to failure in the Western markets before the rise of smartphones and tablets. The Wii U is priced much higher than any Nintendo home console before and is, like you say, the anti-thesis of the Wii (i.e. comparable to the GameCube which failed long before tablets existed). What we can expect from the PS4 and Nextbox is that they will launch at high prices and will be very expensive to develop for. This will lead to an initial games library that has not much variety, because publishers can't afford the risk to do anything else. High price and narrow appeal will lead to sluggish sales, because it always does. Once again, regardless of the existence of tablets. |
O__o Someone out there is actually reading all my posts?
Well spoken, er, written Rol.
I agree with what you're saying, and absolutely there's a base (this here forum base for example) that will be true to consoles for years to come. However, as tablets become more powerful and more Android (and iOS?) gaming consoles appear, I think they will continually drain the console pool so it becomes a ever more niche market (unable to support the very AAA experiences they've come to expect). This won't happen overnight, it's a slow process but it's happening even now. Kids want a tablet over a WiiU (SpurgeonRyan) for example.
Mostly I think tablets, etc. is expanding the market further than ever before and for gaming in general this is great. It's also allowing all new players to come in and to grow into major players. It's also allowing for a degree of innovation that's been lacking - and as you mention will continue to narrow - on console.
I think MS sees this threat better than Sony/Nintendo has from what we know/heard has lots of innovative ideas on how to keep people coming back to it's console. PS4 I suspect will sell less than PS3 and WiiU... Well, I'm sure you know my opinions on that. I agree with the article that the eighth gen will sell less than the seventh and by a third sounds right but let's face it, we are all guessing, fans and experts alike. Last time we saw a shift like this was when games went from consoles (Atari) to PCs (C64) back to consoles (NES). After the eighth gen I don't think there will be such a thing as a dedicated home gaming console. I'm not sure we even have that with the eighth.
