i think microsoft have a good chance of leading this gen if they get most of what they do right,price at launch could be vital and the services online that are provided
i do think that it will be pretty level pegging this gen with the loyalists pretty much even,these tablets,phones and pads could make us more niche than we already are
i think online services,movies,tv,old/big games library online will be essential for sales on top of the game experiences provided
emerging markets and of course a break out hit might swing it for someone in the gen lifetime but who knows