Its too early to tell.
What i do know is that Microsoft is in a difficult position. They are under fire due to greed with Xbox live gold and only making the games that sell millions over and over again, having no variety in their portfolio.
If you think about gamers as fans of certain game genres think about it:
Action/adventure > This gamer is gonna go to Sony if it isnt already.
Racing > This gamer is good on any console.
RPG > This gamer is probably gonna choose Nintendo and Sony because microsoft does not have japanese support.
Platformer > This gamer keeps to Nintendo.
Shooting > This is the only gamer that will stick to Microsoft.
The 360 had some early adopters due to the ammount of JRPG's they got at the start. These will be gone this time around. Also those old Nintendo fans that believed Rare was still gonna make more games after Kameo and Perfect dark zero, those are both lost.
You see where im getting at. These last 2 years of the 360 will become very costly for the nextBox. There are many unhappy gamers that will change fields next gen.
With that said, in the US the system will be fine. Its completely obvious that Microsoft knows how to tackle the american market, even with things like the kinect that in theory arent worth the price.
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