They currently have a reasonable chance, what with the Wii U not doing so well. It depends what Microsoft has been up to, as they are the most likely to be too complacent going into this generation. Microsoft took a chunk of Sony market share, and Sony took Nintendo market share before that. Microsoft might feel pretty solid right now, just like Sony right before the PS3. But hopefully the knocks they've taken in other areas (Zune, Windows Phone, Surface etc.) means they learnt a few lessons.
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