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If there`s a AAA line-up i see it being more geared towards 3rd party games. I say this because i think Sony will want to give them time to stand out and to give studios to have time to learn how to work with PS4.
A new COD, a new Fifa and BF 4 are pretty much a given and that alone is already better than what PS3 had to offer at launch.
In terms of ports and exclusives i don`t think PS4 will lose to Xbox 720 - if released at the same time.

If there`s a new Resistance title it has to be at launch to help relaunch the franchise.
Maybe a new Ratchet aswell.

I think that even if there aren`t AAA 1st party games, it would be wise to have original games along ports. And if possible try to release the machine before the big games are released!