I think Nintendo really has a chance to steal E3. First off, I don't have very much confidence in Microsoft or Sony. Hardcore gamers are expecting a show that caters exclusively to them, but I don't think that will happen, at least not from Microsoft. Look at Microsoft's past few E3s. Microsoft will typically announce one new game from an established franchise, third party stuff, and tons of casual crap. They spent most of their E3 last year talking about Smartglass (remember Smart Glass?) and having Usher dance.
Sony is a little better at E3. They don't tend to do many big announcements (the last big thing I can remember is Twisted Metal) but they usually at least focus on games (and sometimes Wonderbook). I'm more concerned about the PS4 itself. Sony's recent track record in terms of hardware has been spotty at best. The PSP Go and Move showed a real lack of understanding their market. The PS3 was a slow starter, and few will forget its legendarily poor E3 showing. The Vita is still struggling to find its footing.
I feel like people are getting overhyped about what Sony and Microsoft will show, and the reality won't match their expectations. Meanwhile a lot of people are (or were) looking past Nintendo and with those low expectations, they might wind up being very surprised. If Nintendo shows off Mario Kart, Super Mario 3D, Smash, and has a couple of surprises (Retro and Miyamoto's new projects?) they could steal a lot of the thunder from their competitors.
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