Microsoft could end up in 3rd place next-gen

[sales2099]

dsgrue3 said:

sales2099 said:

dsgrue3 said:

sales2099 said:

To disregard history....in any context, is backwards thinking. Simple as that.

So in other words, you cannot prove your claim. Thanks bud.

Schools and Universities teach history. To say a time tested fact that man must learn from histroy so we may learn from it, is wrong, well I say society spanning thousands of years > your opinion.

But in gaming, we can learn what happens when you launch first, have different price points, appeal to certain demographics over others, the impact of exclusives over 3rd party games, the rise of digital markets, how brand appeal affects market positions.......gaming history can tell us a lot about whats gonna happen next gen, after all 3 consoles release and we see patterns emerge.

Seriously, your stance that history isn't important......I dont know how you can defend that claim.

1. Never said history is unimporant. I said history means zilch when used to predict the future of console success.

2. You have failed to back up your claim that you can, in fact, use history to accurately predict future console sales.

I'll wait for you to address your fallacious claim.

Once all 3 consoles release and their patterns set in, yes, I feel we can use prior generations to predict how things will go.

Seeing PS2, 360, DS, and 3DS for example, headstarts are extremely important and when backed by the proper brand, thus discounting Dreamcast as Sega's brand was lost in importance, can contribute to more sales for several years.

Brand being a factor as well, as it saved PS3 from failure while keeping 360s lead from being bigger. Brand presence has overall changed this gen, as Sony obviously lost some brand presence and MS gained it. Next gen we should see the next Xbox have more initial sales then 360 as it is certainly more known then it was in 2005. PS4 sales will be determined by price, and when it launches. We simply know too little now.

We have learned that the casual crowd is not a loyal one, hence poor WiiU sales so far.

We have learned that weaker hardware usually becomes the winner (DS, 3DS, PS1, PS2, Wii, etc) as they are more mass market positioned. 

Just a few things that can provide educated guesses for next gen. But as I said, we can get a full picture after a few months of all 3 next consoles on the market at the same time.

Now stop before I associate PS fans with burning down gaming museums.

EDIT: Also given 3DS initial sales, and subsequent price drop before Vita even launched, we can learn that WiiU can be in a very simialr position and can very well turn its fortunes around before its competition launches if the price is right and the right games come during the holidays