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To expand upon my earlier comment ...

With the over-representation of male gamers that might double the number of gamers who plan to buy a PS-Vita, if they over-represent younger gamers (a likely situation) that might double the number of gamers who plan to buy a PS-Vita, and if they over-represent hard-core gamers (once again, quite likely) that might also double the number of gamers who plan to buy a PS-Vita; and, as a worst case scenario, this might translate to 8% of all gamers plan on buying a PS-Vita this year.

To make matters worse, not all planned purchases are as likely to happen. A gamer who plans on buying a 3DS after they recieve their tax refund is a lot different than a gamer who plans on buying a PS-Vita when Sony drops the price to $200, bundles a memory card and a game, and Monster Hunter and Final Fantasy are announced for the PS-Vita.