Gallup: Americans Support Obama's gun proposals

[GameOver22]

HappySqurriel said:

GameOver22 said:

Soleron said:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/

Of the 23 polling firms who published 5 polls before the presidential election, Gallup was 7.2 percentage points wrong. The next worst firm was 4.5, then 3.7, then all the rest were within 3.

Of course this may not apply to this poll, but any polling firm that is 7.2 points predicting the wrong winner when everyone else was very close and polls in general were very accurate has a serious political agenda problem.

Considering Gallup underestimated Obama's winning margin, I doubt this is a result of any political agenda....if so, they are inconsistent, as election results would mean Gallup is pro-Rep while the gun-control poll would be pro-Dem. Now, I think Gallup needs to look at their survey methodology, particularly in terms of how they determine likely-voters, but I hardly think one erroneous election season is enough to discredit their work.....they've been doing polls since the 1930s and provide much more data than election predictions.

Just as a question ...

Wouldn't predicting a closer election race by boosting Republican numbers increase voter turn out for the Democrats?

Not really. Research actually suggests that it would increase the percentage of people voting Republican. People sometimes use polls as voting cues.....meaning they use public opinion as a barometer to judge the quality of candidates. There's also other research that suggests that non-voters tend to just follow polling trends.....meaning that if non-voters actually voted, they would just increase the victory margins of the election winners.