Is 2008, the beginning of the end for the XBox 360?

[Dodece]

What I find interesting is the paradox of game library and lineup. Last years winner by far had the weakest lineup of all three, and had the least variation in titles. The 360 didn't win last year in spite of having the hands down best lineup. You can talk about your best titles on the other two consoles, but the truth was Microsoft had many more high quality titles. They also had the greatest variation and depth.

That didn't slow down Nintendo who couldn't even come through with their holy trinity, or kill off Sony which couldn't seem to get its big exclusive games out the door even for the holiday season. So if lineup is so critical to success why is it that perhaps at best it was a secondary consideration last year, or at worst wasn't even a factor for most consumers.

When someone tells me that the PS3 will dominate the competition thanks to its lineup I ask this question. Why should it matter this year if it didn't matter all that much last year. I only saw two sales surges last year in regards to games. The first was Hot Shots Golf in Japan which pulled the PS3 back from fabulously dismal sales. Mock Microsoft if you like they have more of an excuse. Then there was Halo 3 which really boosted Microsoft's sales up until the holiday season. Both titles moved hardware. Beyond them however there wasn't much. You couldn't even argue that Mario moved hardware, because its quite possible that the machines would have sold without him.

When I look at the probable lineups for this year. Which I admit is speculative until Nintendo, and Microsoft announce what their exclusives will be for the second half, and until Sony commits to release dates. Well I am not seeing any player lacking in software this year. The lineups are at least comparable. The quality gap that existed last year probably won't be seen this year.

For example if you said last year Microsoft had twenty, Sony had eight, and Nintendo had five. Sony might have twenty this year, Microsoft might have sixteen, and Nintendo might have twelve. The difference is not terribly significant when compared to how large it was the previous year when it didn't seem to matter all that much.

I will tell you what seems to have mattered the most last year. No it wasn't system specifications, or the game libraries, nor was it a name brand. What mattered was the advertising. How stoked your advertising could get undecided consumers about your product. Nintendo marketed a family togetherness gimmick meets martial arts in your living room. You know what it worked really well, and on the other end of the spectrum for the first half of last year Sony had perhaps the worst advertising, and you saw how their machine was selling during that time. I don't think its a coincidence. Then there was Microsoft's media spectacle that was Halo 3. From non stop commercials to cough syrup flavored cola.

That might be the most important thing about any game lineup is conveying its power to the ignorant masses. Trying to sweep them up into a fervor of needing to have it even if they have no clue what it is. All Nintendo or Microsoft has to do is spin what they have into marketing gold.