I agree with him, and you. I think it will most likely end up at 50M. One only has to look at the launch to see why. Sure, the overall numbers are okay, thanks to the first few weeks. However, if you look at how things are trending, it doesn't bode well.
During Japan's busiest sales weeks, the Wii U was still dropping each week. Europe doen't seem too interested in it. In the US (and EU actually), it is being outsold by the Wii. While some may point out that the PS2 outsold its successor when the PS3 first launched, it's not exactly the same. The PS2 was selling extremely well in the US, the Wii isn't. The PS2 was only 5 years old when the PS3 launched, this will be the Wii's 7th year on the market. In other words, this gen is already dying and people are ready for the next. And while the Wii U is ~$170 more than the Wii (only $30 more than the PS3), the PS3 was a full $370 more expensive than the PS2.
The biggest point here is that price isn't exactly an obstacle for the Wii U. As I pointed out above, the Wii U is only ~$30 more expensive than the PS3. I feel a price cut to $249 will definitely help out its sales, but I don't expect it to be a complete turn around, like it was for the 3DS. Not when the PS4 will most likely be launching for ~$399.
