Timed Monopoly: Why it's Too Soon for the Next Xbox

[rocketpig]

bdbdbd said:
Now what the writer suggests, is that M$ is going the Sega way, which i don't believe. If M$ is going to launch third console, it's under development. And if they see some planned game to fit better for their future console, maybe because of new innovation or new tech, it is better to move to that console, since M$ definately knows that they aren't going to win this generation and they have a shot to win the next one if they play things right. Anyway, i doubt that "rumor" being anywhere near truth. A good example was the rumored GC controller before GC release, and just like Shigeru stated that they were planning to release a controller similar to Wii Remote for GC, but since Nintendo propably saw that they had lost the game before GC release, they decided to push their innovation for the next generation.

 Very good points. While MS will certainly release their next console before anyone else, there are many other factors at stake here...

- What about high def optical? That market needs to clean itself up before MS will want to jump into it (and their next console will most certainly use high definition optical).

- What about the price? MS will certainly not launch above a $400 price point ($300 is more likely IMO). How will they gain a significant technological advantage over the PS3 at that point?

- Customer rapport. MS will burn many bridges with a new console in 2009. The 360 is still going strong (though not great) and there is plenty of room to improve sales as the price drops. Shit, the Pro still retails at $349, just $50 less than launch. They'll want that price under $200 before a new console launches.

Wait until MS can choose high def optical comfortably (most likely BD at this point) with a cheap price and wait until they can annihilate the tech behind the PS3 for ~$300. By holiday 2010, MS will be able to build a machine that will stomp all over the PS3 for a reasonable price. And that's when they'll launch. There's not much to gain from doing it before then and there is a hell of a lot to lose by doing so.