| daveJ said: Whats worse is here are the last 5 pokemon game combos, which all launched in sep/oct on the DS and there how many sales they sold that year 2006 Pokémon Diamond / Pearl Version 4,473,692 2008 Pokémon Platinum Version 2,295,013 2009 Pokémon Heart Gold / Soul Silver Version 3,556,510 2010 Pokémon Black / White Version 5,050,908 2012 Pokemon Black / White Version 2 6,032,311 Launched in June Yet somehow pokemon X / pokemon Y is somehow going to perform way better, on hardware thats selling worse. I mean seriously? GTAV will most likely do better sales than this first month |
Did you look into any of this at all? Platinum is basically a GOTY edition, HG/SS are remakes, and BW2 are direct sequels. The only relevant games you mentioned are Diamond/Pearl and Black/White.
Diamond and Pearl didn't launch in the US or Europe until 2007... that's right, they sold almost 4.5 million in Japan alone, in about 14 weeks. Black and White didn't launch in the US or Europe until 2011 -- again, yup, they sold over 5 million in Japan alone in about 16 weeks.
Since X/Y are going to have simultaneous global releases in October, let's try looking at the first 10 weeks of sales in each region for D/P and B/W.
Diamond/Pearl: 3.43 million in Japan, 2.41 million in the US, 1.58 million in Europe. 7.42 million total.
Black/White: 4.51 million in Japan, 3.58 million in the US, 1.75 million in Europe. 9.84 million total.
That's first 10 weeks in each major region -- XY will also release in Australia and perhaps other regions at the same time. Now consider that the American and European figures above do not include any Holiday weeks. None. The Japanese figures above extend only to the end of November, not into December.
Finally, the install base. The 3DS is outpacing the DS in hardware. This is a fact. However, it is a fairly irrelevant fact, because X & Y will release later in the 3DS's life than Diamond and Pearl did in the DS's life -- at least in Japan. Speaking of Japan, the DS had an install base of 11.45 million in the region the week Diamond and Pearl released. The 3DS just hit 10 million in Japan, and will absolutely have a much larger install base than 11.5 million by October. Probably closer to 14 million.
The DS had an install base of 10.81 million in America the week of Diamond & Pearl's release. The 3DS currently has an install base of 7.88 million in America, and will be up to at least 9-10 million by October. The install base of the DS in Europe was 13.77 million the week Diamond & Pearl were released. The 3DS currently has an install base of 7.29 in Europe, and again should be over 9 million in the region by October.
Add it all up, the DS had roughly a combined install base of 36 million at the time of Diamond & Pearl's staggered launches, and the 3DS should come close to that or match it. To make a long story short, 8 million is the minimum X & Y will sell this year. If they are released in the last week of October, you may see 8 million. If they are released the first week... well, I hope you've got enough salt to make your hat palatable.
