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Pineapple on 09 January 2013
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F0X said:
Pineapple said:
MDMAlliance said:
The only reason I put 25m+ is because of how different this one is, and the hype level that is resulting can result in some better-than-average results. The graphics have a huge upgrade from the usual, and there are a lot of changes that seem to be things a lot of people like. There seem to be people who haven't played pokemon in a while who seem interested in this one, so it isn't entirely impossible for this one to have better legs than most of the others.

You're correct that there's a lot of potential here. If there's ever a title that has the potential to sell over 30 million, it's this one. If you look at all the people who have ever bought a Pokemon game, it's probably passed 50 million by now. But, as the series hasn't evolved a ton, there's been a large drop-off. If you can get a large number of those drop-offs interested, you could very well end up selling 30 million. Personally I think it's unlikely, but it's definitely a possibility.

F0X said:

Around 16-17 mil. Should be big since it's a large step forward, but the recent glut of Pokemon releases may eat into sales a bit.

(I can't get quotes to work anymore, so I'm just copy/pasting your post

 

It's not strctly speaking true that there's been an increase in mainline Pokemon releases, though.  Look at it as a timeline, and it's rather evident.

1996: Blue/Red
97:  Nothing
98: Yellow
99: Gold/Silver
00:  Crystal
01:  Nothing
02:  Ruby/Sapphire
03: Nothing
04: Fire Red/Leaf Green, as well as Emerald (so 2 major Pokemon games in one year)
05: Nothing
06: Diamond/Pearl
07: Nothing
08: Platinum
09: Heart Gold/Soul Silver
10: Black/White
11: Nothing
12: Black/White 2
13: X and Y

Pokemon games have always been a close to annual thing. In the GB era, there were 4 games in 5 years. In the GBA era, we saw 3 games in 4 years. On the DS, we saw 5 games in 7 years.

It's abnormal for Pokemon to start a new generation the year following the end of the previous one. Last time that happened was the transition from Gen 1 to Gen 2, when Gold/Silver followed the year after the release of Pokemon Yellow. Just by looking at the pattern, I'd have anticipated a Gen 3 remake instead on a new generation. However, I think Game Freak is making the right choice by using a new generation for the 3DS transition, and doing it quickly. Though I do think X/Y will be competing with B/W2 until after the holiday season is over.

I'm not sure how they'll be competing, really. Black & White 2 is going to be in the sub-30,000 a week levels by the time X/Y launches. It's likely it won't even do 500,000 post Y/X launch, really. Meanwhile, Y/X is going to be selling somewhere around 10 million. That's actually less of a competition than Mario Kart DS is to Mario Kart 7.