Sony Won't Release PS4 until 2014 and It Won't Be a Gimped Console.

[DanneSandin]

Dodece said:
Excuse me while I point out the Elephant in the room. All the speculation in this thread thus far has revolved around what Sony needs to do to win, or what Sony needs to do to keep from losing. Maybe what we should be discussing is survival strategies. Whether some here want to believe it or not. Sony isn't the company it was a decade ago. They have lost money for five straight years, and that is in spite of selling large chunks of the company off, and actually using credit to cover operating expenses. Sony is neck deep in debt, and that isn't any kind of a exaggeration.

Meanwhile Microsoft and Nintendo aren't the companies they were five years ago in this space. While Sony got weaker they went, and got a hell of a lot stronger. Nintendo just came off of a home console that printed them money, and was a smash hit. Microsoft is coming off a very profitable console thanks to their subscription scheme, and more importantly they used all that money to fund expansion. While Sony on the whole has shed studios, exclusive franchises, and reputation. Microsoft has increased its number of studios. Created a number of franchises, and has only seen its reputation improve over the coarse of the previous generation.

The whole point of this diatribe is this. Sony is crippled, and its competitors are in peak physical conditioning. We are really talking about long odds. Sony could make a run at the prize, but rest assured that the exertion really could destroy them. There isn't any reason at all that Microsoft shouldn't just outspend Sony out of the gate. Microsoft has proven that it has no qualms about loss leading on its hardware, or about bribing third parties to get preferential treatment. Nintendo has opted for a positional advantage, and that means they will be protecting a lead. Rather then being forced to assail the lead. They get all the advantages that more time brings.

To me that means Sony has to be more pragmatic then it has been in the previous generation. Which means that they have to be looking for a happy medium. They need to look for a pace that will let them place without overexerting themselves in the process. Further more the longer they hang in there. The greater the chance for a turn around in their fortunes. What they really need is a strategy that will let them hang in there.

So if you are thinking about a 2013 launch. Then you have to expect a compromise on the hardware front. Either Sony has to tone back their capabilities to make a profit from the hardware, or they have to go off on a tangent. Whichever way is the most profitable out of the gate. In this scenario money gives Sony more time. If you are thinking of a 2014 launch then the hardware can be competitive at a profitable price point.

I honestly think Sony has some good options here. More then most of you seem to think. Once you think outside of terms of black and white, winning or losing. You can see how Sony can do well for itself without conquering this marketplace. It seems to me that too many of you keep thinking of Sony in terms of Giant on the Playground. When it is fact now the runt of the litter. They can't brute force things, and get their way anymore. They tried that last generation, and got the stuffing beat out of them.

Sony isn't the Champion anymore it is the Underdog. The sooner that little tidbit sinks in the better, and as the Underdog. Their path to success doesn't involve them playing the game the other guys are going to play. They have to opt for guile, patience, or surprise. Which is how Nintendo moved up. They knew they couldn't win a fight pound for pound against Sony and Microsoft. So they changed the equation. Anyway does anyone here have the slightest desire of discussing what Sony should do outside of playing only to win.

Very good post! Your contribution to this thread is very insightful and good - too bad it falls on deaf ears...