Personally, I suspect the "Steam Box" is a certification/set of standards and there will be multiple systems produce by a variety of manufacturers with different capabilities and prices; and games would have to be able to run at adequate levels on that hardware to be sold through steam.
Hypothetically speaking, I think it would be a lot like "Android for game consoles" ... At the low end you could have an inexpensive system that could play games at low quality settings at 720p@30fps, and at the high end you could have a premium system that could play the same games at ultra-high quality settings in 3D at 1080p@60fps.
The market (at the moment) is small, but over-time it could be huge for a product like this. In the not too distant future, you could produce a sub $100 system to sell in the developing world that has $5 games; and these games would have once needed a $600 system sold in the developed world to run at the highest quality setting, and sold for $60.
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