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Mostly 2 things.

1. Xbox live gold subscription beeing necessary for online play when the competition offers it for free.
2. Lack of faith on Microsoft game studios to come up with compelling exclusive software or platform exclusives.

Reason i purchased a 360: Had several JRPG's exclusive to the system and it was significantly cheaper than the PS3 (out sooner aswell).
I dont see Microsoft gathering the same japanese support they had at the launch of the 360 and i dont expect them to be significantly cheaper than what Sony will have in offer (though they can take the losses for that).

I dont see many strong points in their favor at this point. They have alot to prove after they have left the 360 to dry on these last 2 years.