non-gravity on 04 January 2013
| theprof00 said: so does it make sense to say that if you have 1000 by week 10 you have a 10% margin of error? |
The whole thing confuses me so don't quote me on this.
1000 points on 5*10=50 predictions is approximately 20% off on average, which makes 20% the standard deviation.
I believe margin of error is the 95% confidence interval. For a normal distribution the 95% confidence level is twice the standard deviation up and down (-2*SD,+2*SD).
Which makes the margin of error 40%. Note however that VGChartz isn't very reliable either, certainly no 10% margin of error on a weekly basis.
