first of all, where do you get "2-3 million" from 10%?
New users would be from a pool of what? 1 billion? 300 million? 10% of X is not necessarily 2-3 million.
Second of all, Anyone on VGchartz is automatically a hardcore gamer. There is 0 representation of the casual market.
Here's my conclusion:
Assuming:
100 Million PS2 + 20 Million GCN + 25 Million Xbox = ~ 120 million gamers in the market (assuming some overlap)
GCN will hold a 40% marketshare after all is said and done.
Xbox360 and PS3 will share the remaining 60%.
So assuming 100 million gamers,
50 million will have Wii
30 million will have Xbox360
30 million will have PS3
(assuming some overlap)
You can squabble over marketsize all you want (150 gamers = 75 million wii's and blah blah) but at least my conclusion is based on actual numbers.
Though personally I consider it a miracle if PS3 reaches 30 million, but that's just me
