Combo of Microsoft and their financials. Just don't see how they can compete with Microsoft for price, they're both gonna make hardware which costs about the same and does roughly the same 'graphix', just like the 360 and PS3. Thing is Microsoft can take a bigger hit on the hardware sale loss, and that could be a telling factor imo. Even if its' just $50 is could hurt - maybe Sony can mask this via selling consoles with PS+ subscriptions or something.
Sony need some sort of innovation or idea that'll allow them to have a key selling feature without raising the manufacturing costs. Free online still presents a great value proposition if they can actually send that message across but they need something else. I guess their software can help too, but I doubt Microsoft will be light on the exclusives for the early console generation.
On the other hand, they have Japan tied down against Microsoft and generally seem better accepted in Europe and other markets like Asia / latin America. So even if they can't compete against them in the USA for price, which did hurt them horribly this gen, they should always have plenty of regions to rack up decent hardware sales.
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