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Scisca said:

PS3 has the best longevity this gen. Do you really think it's because of Move?

 

Wii U will be a Gamecube 2. Nobody will want to play inferior ports of multiplatform games, people will just plug it in and turn on once or twice a year to play a new Nintendo 1st party game. It will be too weak to compete for the core gamers and the casuals have already moved on to tablets.

The biggest problem though is that both X360 and PS3 gamers have their achievements/trophies and friend lists already there, they will be tranferable to the next console and this is a HUGE incentive for them to stay with the same manufacturer next gen. Nintendo has no online ecosystem and this will hurt them big time.

I'm not convinced ...

I think a large portion of Nintendo's strategy is to stand back and watch Sony and Microsoft self-destruct.

The kind of hardware people suggest Sony and Microsoft will select for their next generation systems would likely result in a system that costs over $500 to manufacture, if they bundle 3d cameras or tablet controllers to attract (so-called) "Casual" gamers this would probably push the system's manufacturing cost over $600, and both companies have significant problems with taking the same kind of losses on hardware this generation that they took in the previous generation.

If Sony or Microsoft release a $500+ console I expect those systems to struggle while the Wii U gets a bump; and if they hit $600 I think the PS-Vita will look remarkably popular compared to the sales these systems get. With the increased development cost of next generation games, and publishers need for greater sales, they will probably have to support the Wii U far more heavily than they did the Wii if the PS4 or XBox 720 struggle.

This may not happen, but I think it is as likely as the Wii U only getting inferior ports of PS4/XBox 720 games.