Sony: HD twin market is bigger and more identifiable than Nintendo, also less prone to competition from smaller format gadgets. In a 3 player market, you don't want to occupy the same niche as the category killer. No one can compete with Nintendo at Nintendo's game. But Nintendo has proven again and again to be very timid to produce different products to capture different markets. If car makers all try to sell just one model and it must make 911 drivers happy and Hyundai drivers happy, ..well no one can.
Sony is MSFT's biggest enemy and ally wrapped into one. As long as they both are content with 1+1 > 2, they will be the biggest market for 3rd parties. But if Sony turns this into a paper-scissor-rock scenario, if somehow the HDTwins are no longer as easy to go multiplatform on due to Nintendo like quirks, then Sony and MSFT's coopetition days will be numbered. MSFT has proven time and again to be king of mediocrity and lack of innovation. Kinect seems great but if they over implement it like how Nintendo betrayed regular controllers, they themselves risk restratifying the market into a Paper Scissor Rock game. But since MSFT is financially solid, it is more likely that Sony becomes the player forced into a gamble.
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