At the moment I would say Nintendo's biggest obstacle is the unknown ...
While they are not as agressive as they could be, Nintendo's strategy seems to be to position themselves to capitalize on the mistakes Sony and Microsoft are likely to make. They have released their system earlier, at a reasonable price, and are trying to get cross-platform third party support with the HD consoles and if Sony or Microsoft make a mistake Nintendo is in a good position to benefit from it.
Essentially, it isn't that much different from what they did with the 3DS; and as long as the PS-Vita struggles the 3DS' position gets stronger.
The problem is that Nintendo really doesn't know what Sony or Microsoft are going to do, and they may not make any significant mistakes that benefit Nintendo.
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