As far as processing power goes ... If you consider two consoles where they can play similar games except for one will run at 30fps (compared to 60fps for the competition), at half the resolution, with 2/3 the texture detail, and 2/3 the polygon detail through out console generations:
- Back in the Playstation and N64 days this would be a huge generation defining difference
- Back in the PS2, Gamecube and XBox generation the difference would be important but not critical
- Today, with the PS3 and XBox 360, this would be a small (noticeable) difference
- In the next generation this will be almost unnoticeable
We're in an era where further advances in hardware technology are brining diminishing returns as far as impact in 3D games. With that it mind few people will notice the difference between a system that cost $1,000 to manufacture and a system that cost $200 to manufacture.
As a result of this, I think that all three consoles will be launched at $200 or $300, between 2011 and 2012, and will include similar hardware across the board. Microsoft and Nintendo will probably increase the number of cores in their processors to between 6 and 8, while Sony will probably have a "multi-cored" cell (essentially multiple cell processors on a single die), all will be at higher clockspeeds than their current processors; Microsoft and Nintendo will get their GPUs from ATI, while Sony will get their GPU from nVidia, and they will be similar to the best processors from 2009 or 2010.
All three consoles will end up attempting to take the Wiimot to the next level; Sony and Microsoft will (in my opinion) try to make a hybrid with their current consoles so the Nunchuck will look like the left half of the PS3 and XBox 360 controller (without the d-pad) while their Wiimote will likely have 4 face button, two triggers, no d-pad, and no 1 + 2 buttons. In my opinion, it is difficult to know exactly where Nintendo will go with it.
