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Wii is already out of the race.

X360 will likely drop out very soon looking at the NeXbox in Q3/Q4 next year.

Isn't it a given that it'll hit 50%?

Something I have yet to understand is why people make everything into a contest. MSFT succeeded in what they wanted to do this generation. Nintendo succeeded as well so when the PS3 outsells the X360 it still hasn't diminished the fact that XBL, Software, X360, Wii were all successful and more so than the PS3.