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I think the next-gen will start with a new competitors offering, basically, a 4th company will launch what amounts to a HD Wii with massive support and all three current players will be forced to respond sooner than they'd like.

I think hard-core gamers will be the after-thought in the next gen for all involved. Let's face it, they know the core will buy anyway, it's everyone else they need to win other. There will be core games, but the price/design/marketing will be mainstream.

Other Christmas 09 - HDWiiish $200
MS 2011 - $250/$400 (2 skus)
Nintendo 2011 - $200
Sony 2012 - $250