Let's look at a few points that jump out at me;
"Even in a world with a single platform, there would be room for alternatives that cater to specialists tastes; 99% of cars conform to a pretty narrow range of attributes but there is still a market for way-out automobiles for certain tastes and budgets."
99% of cars conform to a narrow range of specs if you completely abstract it. Engine, 4 wheels, etc.. but when you get down to it, cars are barely identical. Different sized engines, multitude of wheels with different profiles, etc...
"Even then, the default platform would, at some point, need to be updated suggesting some form of transitional fragmentation, advanced versions of games that work with the advanced format and the older format,"
"This is why the single platform would require some form of inherent upgrade-ability both in software and hardware terms."
All these multiple specs cause headache for programmers because now they need to test their stuff on a plethora of hardware. One of the arguments for console gaming is the fact that it is a standardised platform. If we start allowing upgrades, we will end up with the exact same problems we see with PC games.
"But it is certainly possible and, given that you and I might not be thinking about buying a more advanced console than the ones we have for another decade, it doesn’t seem so far-fetched to suggest that technological progression in game hardware is slowing down;"
So he is after a system that is progressively upgradable, in 10 year increments? Even if I was to take his side that tech progression is slowing down (which I feel is WAY off base), 10 years is an exteremely long time in technology.
"An open platform with an installed base of billions would be better than the situation we currently have; with the proviso that progression is built into the plan"
So this open console suddenly increases the gamer market, quite significantly? Just because ever set-top box designer could add this to their setup, they aren't going to. This increases the cost and there are a significantly large amound of people out there who do not want a console. Even if we assume that this was mandatory, just because people have it in their houses doesn't mean they will use that feature.
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This basically describes what we have with PCs now, except for the fact there aren't 'revision points'. While one day we 'may' end up with realtively unified architecture (as consoles progress closer and closer to PCs) you aren't going to end up with a completely unified specification.
