Gen-over-gen marketshare report

[Dodece]

psrock said:

Dodece said:
I think Microsoft will carry fifty five percent of the market share. Sony will carry thirty percent of the market share, and Nintendo will carry fifteen percent of the market share. Unlike some I will explain my reasoning with a concise listing of decisive factors. While I think previous trends are important. I think what is offered is what will be born out in the final analysis. I am going to skip the expounding this time around, because this thread is pretty fast paced, and I want a quick read, but I will be more then willing to expand these points if someone would like.

Microsoft
1. Has twenty one first party games/entertainment studios. More games, and original content equals more sales.
2. Has the best casual interfaces, and is developing augmenting technology, and is already truly universal.
3. Has the greatest cash reserves, revenue streams, and the will to use them to cut price points, overcompensate on hardware, or to acquire assets mid generation.
4. Has a lock on as the next edutainment device. You thought Master Chief and Mario were monsters. They are nothing compared to the sales power that is Dora the Explorer. Especially if one of Microsoft's entertainment studios streams truly interactive children's entertainment.

55% huh, are you on gametrailers by any chance?

Look at the front page and look How casual games have been doing this year on MS. Nintendo owns that part and will keep it. Sony will have more IPs than MS. 

Casual games are actually doing fairly well on the 360. Granted they aren't the newer titles, but it isn't written anywhere that demand should only be counted against the most recent releases. If we want to follow that logic PS3 owners really aren't into racing games, because only the old games actually sell really well. We can theorize as to why this is, but seeing as you probably aren't genuinely interested in understanding this. Then it is safe to say it would be a waste of my precious time to proceed on this specific point.

Looking at the sales of the Wii. I think it isn't the fact you claim it to be. The Wii and the 360 are competing motion control products, but Microsoft's console is selling over two times as many units. While holding a much higher price point. If that didn't make my point for me. Then the fact that Nintendo moved away from motion control centric play in their new console should. How can Nintendo hold or own a market that they have basically conceded to their rival. How can you win if your not in. Props to Nintendo for realizing that Microsoft had the better technology, and for not wasting time and money fighting a losing battle.

This flies right in the face of all reason, and it is purely wishful thinking on your part. Even if it were to come to pass it would be pretty awful for Sony, because for them to overcome Microsoft's advantage in total number of studios. Sony would have to suffer a myriad of software sales setbacks, and significantly lower the overall quality of their software. That is like losing a war to win a battle. I think Microsoft would gladly take that loss, because it would mean their intellectual properties would be selling well enough to warrant sequels. While Sony's intellectual properties would be almost to a title failing, and thus abandoned in favor of new original properties. What your effectively rooting for is the demise of God of War, Uncharted, Gran Tourismo, and Little Big Planet.

Anyway if Sony can make it into the new generation. I doubt they are going to be forced to abandon their best properties. If they have to do that then the game is pretty much up for them. It would mean that the market has turned its back on Sony's software, and that is probably over half the brand loyalty. In a kind of comincal way you are agreeing with me.