Pound for Pound, Studio for Studio

[Jay520]

Another strange title. Anyway....

"Microsoft is now in a position to match Sony first party title for first party title."

What do you mean by "now"? This implies that Microsoft has never matched Sony's first party support. But that has been exactly the case during the first half of the generation. I assume you're talking about quantity though, in which case, you may have a point. But still though, without looking it up, I still think Microsoft also had a quantity advantage over Sony during the first half of the generation. Of course this is only including games that sold meaningful amounts; Sony had an advantage with 1-2m+ sellers, but Microsoft dominated Sony with 2m+ selling games until about 2009-2010 I think. Either way, any disadvantage Microsoft had, they more than compensated for with superior 3rd party support, through more 3rd party exclusives and superior multiplats. I doubt this 3rd party advantage will continue to exist next generation.

We're going to have to wait and see how those Microsoft studios perform since many of them are new and have no track record. If I had to make a guess, I would have to guess that Sony would still have a quantity advantage going into next gen. I haven't even heard of some of those Microsoft studios, even the older ones; I assume many of them are support studios. Also, Microsoft seems have grown less and less focused on traditional first party games as the generation progressed. In fact, after Kinect's release in 2010, their first party priorities have really shifted focus towards Kinect with their hardcore offerings essentially Halo, Gears, Forza, Fable and Kinect. It hasn't particular been a bad strategy - Kinect is one of Microsoft's most successful releases of all time. So I don't anticipate them changing a strategy that's worked so well.

Not only has Kinect been one of Xbox's biggest successes ever, but consumers are primarily concerned with 3rd party games. Xbox consumers don't seem to care about first party games much, aside from 3-4 franchises (In fact, I think Microsoft has even explicitly stated this once). There is room for 1-3m selling games, but Microsoft seems to have adandoned those games altogether. It seems like those small-medium games simply aren't worth the investment to Microsoft. So they focus on making 3-4 franchises as big as possible and leaving the rest to 3rd parties. The rest of their resources will likely be devoted to Kinect and maybe an occasional new IP. Again, this strategy has been very successful for them so why would they change?

Since it's been so successful, I personally expect them to continue this strategy as we transition into next gen. That is, we'll continue to see 1-2 big games per year from Microsoft with a stronger emphasis on Kinect (I believe most of their new studios are Kinect studios). As for Sony, they'll probably continue their strategy of several small - medium games per year, with at least one big game per year (Gran Turismo, Uncharted, God of War, or new IP). So yeah, I think Sony will continue to have a quantity advantage. Microsoft will definitely introduce a few new IPs occasionally. But if they are only small/medium games selling less than about 3-4m, then I don't see Microsoft prolonging their life and the core of their strategy will largely remain unchanged.