| Soundwave said: PS4/720 will probably in the 2 TFLOP range performance, they'll shred the Wii U apart. Next year will be a reality check for a lot of people. Sony/MS are not going to "barely" upgrade 7-8 year old hardware. |
You are right, the hardware will seem a lot more powerful, but it doesn't mean there is hardware that's actually for sale that can do true next generation graphics. Beating Wii U is easy but delivering true next generation graphics is entirely different.
Look at the vegetation in Uncharted 3
vs. Far Cry 3
Technically speaking, the "next" level of graphics already exists - it's on the PC. The goal for PS4/Xbox 720 is to get there to match a 2013 PC. For PS3/360 console gamers the above graphics might feel next generation, but it won't be next generation for PC gaming or rather the gaming industry.
When I think of next generation graphics, I think of this below. If people expect next generation PS4 games to look like this, they are going to be sorely disappointed. 2 Tflops of GPU power is a drop in the bucket for realistic graphics.
(This is fake obviously).
I am going to go with Crytek CEO Cevat Yerli with his prediction:
"Rising cost of memory and processors will impact next-gen specs - Crytek"
""Impossible" for next-gen consoles to make same impact as current-gen, Yerli claims.
http://www.videogamer.com/xbox360/crysis_3/news/rising_cost_of_memory_and_processors_will_impact_next-gen_specs_crytek.html
Not in terms of gameplay, but technical knowledge in graphics, I would consider this guy among the top 3 in the industry right now. His studio set the standard for PC graphics for 5 years with Crysis 1 and is aims to achieve another mark with Crysis 3 by having the best looking PC game for at least 2 years. In fact, Crysis 1 still looks better than Far Cry 3 in terms of lighting/light shafts, textures, vegetation physics and human faces -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3ohqbEn1v8
The fact of the matter is the next level of "Real" next generation graphics will require mind-blowing exponential increases in GPU power, not 5-6x, like 100x. This is the nature of the graphics technologies.
Think about it. Imagine you need to produce a 3D square that's sitting on the ground. At most you can see 3 visible faces on the screen for which you need 3 textures and 7 vertices. Now imagine you need to make an entire road of real cobblestones. That's a lot more complex since cobblestones are geometric figures that aren't plain like a square. You need to start tessellating the geometry or "cheating" by using displacement bump-mapping.
Now imagine populating a game world with life-like characters, where the eyes reflect/refract light, the skin undergoes sub-surface light scattering, the eyelashes and each individual hair strand (40K on a human) are all real and interact with wind, the hat would need to move realistically with real world physics effects. I am having doubt PS4/Xbox 720 will do much there because 2Tflops GPU (HD7870) is a joke for next generation graphics effects (i.e., a drop in the bucket for realistic real-time graphics). You need 100 Tflops to shake things up the same way PS3 was vs. PS2. It's easy to get a cut scene with photorealstic characters, but what about real time graphics?
Carmack Not Impressed With Next-Gen Console Hardware
"Take a current game like Halo which is a 30 Hz game at 720p," he added. "If you run that at 1080p, 60 frames with high dynamic frame buffers, all of a sudden you've sucked up all the power you have in the next-generation. It will be what we already have, but a lot better. You will be able to redesign with a focus on DirectX 11, but it will not really change anyone's world.
Both John Carmack and Cevat Yerli think next generation consoles won't be revolutionary from a techonology point of view.
Yerli even goes on to say that no game made on any platform will be as good as Crysis 3 for at least 2 years:
Crysis 3 will completely max out GTX690 (5.6 Tflops). If you aren't going to be impressed by Crysis 3 on the PC in 2013, chances are you won't be impressed by the leap PS4/Xbox 720 will have to offer either. Imo Crysis 3 looks good but it's not blowing people's minds like the first time we all played Unreal 1 or even Super Mario 64 vs. 2D mario. Remember current generation consoles don't render any modern games at 1080P with DX11 effects. Just to go that level you'll probably need a console 6x more powerful, what about next generation graphics? If GTX690 is completely maxed on in Crysis 3 and it's 5.6 Tflops, think about that....
I don't disagree that PS4/Xbox 720 will blow Wii U away hardware wise, but with development budgets balooning, and next generation graphics effects requiring expontential increases, and modern GPUs using a lot more power for high-end versions than R500 in 360 or RSX in PS3 ever did, I just don't see PS4/Xbox 720 being some $350-400 consoles that will suddenly blow us away. My guess is first 2 years of their games will be just PC ports with proper 1080P resolution and textures. As long as Nintendo releases fun 1st party titles and starts getting some 3rd party games that will be cross-platform between PS4/720, they should be competitive at least on price. It'll be easy for Nintendo to drop prices by $50-100 in 1-2 years to counter the more expensive PS4/720 consoles.
