3DS Hardware Prediction Sales of 2013!

[the_dengle]

pezus said:

25m+ and they will have predicted over by 57%+, and that's only if it manages 16m actual sales next year. If it does 13m-14m like the past two the 6m crowd will be 56% off and the 20m+ crowd 48%+ off, while the 25m+ crowd will be 85%+ off. So tell me again how 20m+ is "infinitely more likely".

Percent error has no direct correlation to probability... if I showed you an empty 8-ounce glass, then left the room and filled it to the brim with water, came back and claimed it now held 10 ounces of water, I would only be 25% off, as opposed to claiming there were 2 ounces of water in the glass, in which case I would be 75% off. The difference is that it is impossible for the glass to hold 10 ounces of water, which makes the former claim impossible, while the latter claim is entirely possible (though still incorrect).

Now, I'm not saying 6 mil next year for 3DS is outright impossible, but we're not dealing with an absolute here like an empty glass. 6 mil isn't impossible, but it is outrageously improbable. Over 25 mil is somewhat possible, even if not particularly likely. Far more likely than under 6 mil.

Regardless, the option was put there to vote for under 6 mil, so of course people are going to pick it.