I Voted for 8 million. The Vita is getting a lot more support in Japan and that is where the sales will jump at. While the US/EU will be getting Killzone, Teraway, Soul Scarifice and hopefully Warrior's Lair. 2-3 of the four titles will move systems and in the US and EU.
I expect an announcement of a price price drop in Q1, early Q2 of next year. Mostly likely after their quarterly earnings in March.