Google Predicts Xbox 720 will crush PS4

[Squilliam]

binary solo said:

Squilliam said:

binary solo said:
There may be some correlation between which is leading in search and which will sell the most. However it would be very hard to say that a big lead in search will mean a crushing defeat. Also, this might be predictive of the first year or 2 of sales , but long term through the generation I don;t think this has much predictive value.

Also HDDVD vs. Blu-ray was as do or die thing. There was only going to be one man standing at the end. And search predictions are probably better at predicting a winner take all scenario than a market share scenario.

However consoles have tended to be winner take all scenarios. Console generations have generally ended with large majorities to the winners. Had for instance the Wii been able to cater to the entire market then it would have likely snowballed to >70% market share. If you don't have the same console as your friends you can't play with them, so in effect your enjoyment of multiplayer is predicted partially on the decisions of other people and the availability of content likewise.

That's not winner take all in the same manner as, say a presidential election or the BD/HDD format war. There isn't a lot of similarity between PS3 vs Xbox360 vs Wii and BD vs HDD or VHS vs Betamax in terms of predicting the scope of a win. BD vs HDD was a life and death struggle and BD killed HDD. The same is not the case with consoles, at least not any more.

The better Google search comparison for predictive purposes would be iphone vs Android vs WP8. But of course that would be really hard to compile for predictive purposes because, especially with Andorid but also with WP8 to a certain extent, people are searching more for the brand names / model names not so much for the operating system.

720 could massively dominate in America (and UK) and that would give the impression of global domination. But the reality will likely be that PS4 and Wii are the leading console in other regions. I don't see any console next gen having the actual global dominance (i.e. every country in which it was sold) of PS1 or PS2 and to a lesser extent Wii.

This generation isn't like any other generation so you can't predict future generations off present performance. In this generation we have a fallen champion (PS3) a leader which fell from grace (Wii) and an upstart competitor (Xbox 360). Networks will have a big impact on future performance of consoles because they aren't cross compatible with online just as you can't play HD-DVD movies in a Blu Ray player. If your friends buy PS4's you can't play with them online unless you get a PS4 and if you own a PS4 you want your friends to also buy a PS4 so you can play with them.

We're starting a new generation many of the assumptions of the current generation will bleed over to the next. I can make a pretty strong assumption that when I go into the shops next December and buy a console I will assume that most of my friends will want a PS4 because most of my friends own a PS3 and Playstation is stronger than Xbox in New Zealand. I can also assume that Sony will support local content better because the PS3 had TVNZ etc whilst the 360 didn't give us much in the way of online services. If I lived in the U.S. I would probably be thinking of getting an Xbox Next.

When you have network effects things tend to snowball. Early decisions made by early adopters can have a big impact years down the track as they influence the purchasing decisions of those who come afterwards. As the importance of online grows then the importance of the network effect grows as well. If I have say 40% of my friends on the PS3 and 60% on the Xbox 360 if I buy an Xbox Next and keep my PS3 I can then play with all of my friends. I do believe that Xbox 360 Live users are more fond of the better friends lists and matchmaking whereas PS3 owners are more in the camp of people who 'just want to play games' so I feel that the former are likely more loyal to the systems online than the latter.