Whoever comes out first, has a decent amount of quality games with new and recognizable IPs at launch, and shows a convincing promise of steady influx of games to come will sell well at first. Microsoft did that last time, but I fear their success is their biggest enemy at the moment. Allow me to explain. In the last couple years Microsoft's approach to the console market has been very risk adverse. They have stuck with proven IPs and see very little potential in new worlds and experiences. Its is very clear they believe that they do not have to pump out first party games because third party games will sell their system. That is true in this generation, but i find it extremely foolish if they think the story will repeat itself next time.
Sure they have invested in new studios, but who are they and what have they done? have they proven themselves? are they going to be retail games or downloadable games? I doubt microsoft will just give them all the resources they need to fully implement their visions, let alone execute them. Halo is microsoft's Mario, and that my friends is double edge sword.
Let's say that they do start making games again because its the beginning of a new generation, but does that mean they will stop at the end as they did with this one? Well that makes sense for their bottom line, but why fuck should i invest on a system that will get less support as it gets older?
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