Interesting list you have there. I'm unsure what to make of it. To me, the current dearth of exclusives could also mean that they have been investing their time and money in making exclusive for the next Xbox. They seem pretty confident with the position of the Xbox 360, so why throw money on a given when we can focus on the next? (not suggesting that is good because the gamers miss out in the short run) We won't know for sure so we will have to wait and see if they have been doing so. They did try to do something with the Killer Instinct property, and I read a few articles about their studios working on next gen games (confirmed and not 'rumored titles'). However, I have to agree with you on the casual vs core point. Even if they are making new games we don't know the ratio so that's another thing to look at.
The online thing is tricky, but overall I agree with you. Before my 360 only friends used to say they don't mind paying for a "superior" service. However, since E3 and the instant games collection that notion has reversed somewhat among the more moderate 360 enthusiasts I know. This tells me the hardcore ones probably won't care (not to make any hasty or sweeping generalizations, just an observation).
Also, I know some people who find it hard to switch since they have been building up their profiles on Xbox live, so for them they will probably have 2 consoles (PS and X) rather than solely rely on M$ for their gaming needs. In this sense I think Nintendo is in the most vulnerable position since they are unproven, but I have faith Nintendo will pull things through. They seem serious this round and want to be taken seriously.
Playstation = The Beast from the East
Sony + Nintendo = WIN! PS3 + PSV + PS4 + Wii U + 3DS
