If this is just about being in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place next generation then I agree with your points.
Beyond that however I doubt MS will fall behind, simply because I think they will find a way to keep the Hardcore gamers interested. Similar to Nintendo, MS has gamers at its core, the only difference is that while Nintendo seems to be a causal company trying a bit of hardcore, MS is the complete opposite. Both however have their markets, which does have some overlap, which will help them to survive.
I think the difference between 1st and 3rd place would be how much of those 'swing' or overlapping gamers either Nintendo or MS can get on their side and purchasing their console.
Nintendo Network ID: DaRevren
I love My Wii U, and the potential it brings to gaming.
