Agreed that in 5 or at most 6 years the next gen systems will be out. Just too much drop in price of chips to not put one out.
A couple of givens. HD will still keep expanding into the marketplace. And a lot more people will have it. It seems only logically that all systems will go with some form of HD, tho the Nintendo one will be either equal to or less than MS or Sony's. To make its box cheaper.
Second thing learned, I hope, is the price of the new boxes will be more in line with each other. While Sony might try to come out as top of the line, their lowest price model won't be hundreds of dollars more than the cheapest, most likely, Nintendo, product.
I hope MS learned a bit about quality control, but that is always a bit tricky, especially if you feel the need to rush to the market place with your product.
Now for the unknowns.
1. How much is the casual love affair with the Wiiremote going to die out in any meaningful way? Was it just the complexity of playing the games that were keeping a lot of them away or will most of them either a) decide that they can do a more complex controller or b) they have their WiiSports and that's all that they want?
My opinion. Yes, a lot will drop back out of gaming. But a large number will stay in, doing it off and on throughout the month. But they will want games that a) are somewhat easy to win and b) don't offend them.
There is a reason why Nintendogs, BrainAge, Animal Crossing sell to non-traditional gamers. Because they are easy, satisfying and don't offend. The M-rated and T-rated games are almost harder to play, and can have elements that offend certain casual players. Some will never 'graduate' to the hardcore games, just as few gamers, after trying a cup of tea will ever 'graduate' to wanting to go to a high society tea party.
2. How will the 3rd party developers react? They will have to decide whether to make casual games or more hardcore ones. Eventually if they make too many crappy ones, and the good ones can't be seen, it will drive both casuals and hardcore away, like what happened to Atari in the 1980s. Or some will see that there still is a need for some quality, even if the game is just a 'Cooking Mama'. Not a must have game, for sure. But an okay one if you like that sort of thing.
3. How the console makers react. Will Sony and MS go strongly after the casuals as Nintendo has? Will they be successful or will the shift be too much for them? Will Nintendo's shift to more casual games be too much for hardcore and they drift more and more away? Or will the new experiences, have hardcore with a Sony or MS as their main console, but perhaps as it is turning out, a Nintendo system as a secondary one.
So, yes, Nintendo will ultimately help HD sales, since it has brought in a large base to gaming. Whether it helps Sony and MS this generation or next is more unknown.
Torturing the numbers. Hear them scream.
